Alert 12.05.24
Alert
Alert
By Justin Rubin, John M. Thomas, Brian E. Finch, Johnna Purcell, Jaria Martin
12.20.24
The rise in the deployment of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), particularly their use in the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, has cast a stark light on the vulnerabilities these systems expose both on the battlefield and in civilian areas. Weaponized drones, capable of striking from vast distances, have proven to be an effective, cost-efficient means of disrupting military operations, obliterating once-protected assets such as main battle tanks, combat ships and aircraft, while also targeting civilian infrastructure and military installations far behind the frontlines.
Recent incidents on U.S. soil, including an alarming sighting of an unidentified drone near Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio, have further underscored the complexities surrounding the identification and tracking of these aerial threats. While such occurrences are concerning in their own right, they represent only a fraction of the broader, growing threat posed by UAS both at home and abroad. The ability of adversaries to deploy these systems with increasing sophistication—including longer ranges, higher payloads and greater autonomy—has highlighted the pressing need for the U.S. military to enhance its defensive capabilities.
In response, on December 5, 2024, the Department of Defense (DoD) formally announced the development of a classified strategy aimed at countering the increasing use of UAS by adversaries. This strategy is designed to align DoD efforts across multiple domains, establishing a unified, enterprise-wide approach to mitigate the threats posed by these systems. The announcement builds on previous initiatives, such as the creation of the Joint Counter-Small UAS Office in 2020 and the formation of the Warfighter Senior Integration Group earlier this year. It also follows closely on the heels of the September 2024 unveiling of the Replicator 2 initiative, which seeks to develop advanced technologies specifically designed to counter small drones, with potential funding in Fiscal Year 2026.
As the C-UAS landscape evolves, it is crucial that countermeasures keep pace with the rapid advancements in UAS technology. The integration of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies into unmanned systems is enhancing their capabilities, making them more precise, autonomous and capable of evading detection. This technological evolution, while offering immense potential for UAS, also presents significant challenges for DoD. UAS are becoming increasingly affordable, networked, and lethal, providing adversaries—both state and non-state actors—with the means to threaten U.S. forces and allies around the globe. The low cost of these systems creates a paradox for defense agencies, which must often counter these low-budget threats with high-end systems of their own. Therefore, the development of C-UAS technologies must focus not only on sophistication and effectiveness but also on affordability and scalability to remain viable in the face of growing and evolving threats.
DoD’s Five-Part Strategy
To address this emerging threat, DoD has outlined its commitment to developing a comprehensive, enterprise-wide strategy focused on identifying and implementing innovative counter-UAS technologies. While specific details of the initiative remain classified, DoD has issued a fact sheet highlighting that the strategy adopts a five-pronged approach to advance and deploy effective countermeasures against UAS, including:
The Necessity of Innovative C-UAS Technologies
DoD’s comprehensive strategy to develop innovative C-UAS technologies offers significant opportunities for companies to contribute to addressing emerging threats from drones and other unmanned systems.
While DoD is interested in investing in C-UAS technologies, there will also be partnership opportunities for companies able to provide services peripheral to C-UAS technology, such as those targeted at network traffic monitoring and remediation. Key opportunities include:
The Pentagon’s emphasis on rapid acquisition, budget flexibility and public-private collaboration ensures a dynamic market for contractors and tech innovators. This will include the continuing use of DoD’s Joint Counter-Small UAS Office to vet systems as well as the Defense Innovation Unit and other innovation organizations to help in the contracting process. It will also include initiatives like the Replicator program that will create additional spending for these capabilities. However, the prime spending for these systems will remain within the Services’ program offices with C-UAS responsibilities.
C-UAS in the Homeland: Threats and Opportunities
While DoD’s new strategy is primarily focused on addressing UAS threats abroad, significant challenges are also emerging on the domestic front. Over the past year, sightings of UAS within the United States have surged, leaving both authorities and civilians uncertain about the identities and motives of those operating these drones. Reports of mysterious groups of UAS flying along the Eastern Seaboard have prompted heightened scrutiny from law enforcement and lawmakers, who are demanding swift action and clearer information regarding these incidents.
However, addressing these threats involves navigating both legal and technological complexities. Legally, only certain federal agencies—including the departments of Defense, Homeland Security, Justice and Energy—have the authority to counter UAS threats under specific circumstances. In contrast, state, local and Tribal authorities lack the legal framework to intervene in these situations, whether through kinetic means or less aggressive approaches, such as nets or drone takeovers. Additionally, concerns surrounding wiretapping laws impose restrictions on the use of advanced detection technologies by these agencies.
Currently, Congress is working to renew and potentially expand the expiring authorities granted to federal agencies for C-UAS operations. While there were initial hopes for a long-term renewal in 2024, it is increasingly likely that this effort will be deferred until 2025. Nevertheless, both the House of Representatives and the Senate have introduced proposals aimed at expanding detection capabilities for state, local and Tribal authorities. These proposals also call for the creation of a pilot program to gradually extend mitigation authorities to these entities. Although both initiatives have garnered strong support, they have yet to pass through either legislative chamber.
There remains cautious optimism, however, as the strong advocacy for expanding C-UAS capabilities within the Republican Party, particularly under the Trump Administration, suggests that progress may be made in the coming years.
Opportunities for Engagement in FY 2026
Additional funding is expected to be allocated by the next Congress to support DoD’s acquisition of C-UAS technologies in Fiscal Year 2026. This will likely include funding for the Replicator 2 initiative, and potentially other related programs. Moreover, it is anticipated that non-defense sectors will continue to show interest in developing and deploying C-UAS technologies. For companies involved in this field, it is critical to stay ahead of the curve by closely monitoring the Congressional appropriations process and identifying emerging funding opportunities.
For companies seeking to contribute to U.S. homeland security, engaging with Congress is essential. It will be important to present solutions that emphasize their safety and the necessity of their deployment to enhance national security. In the current climate, such advocacy will be more effective if it underscores the minimal collateral impact of these technologies and demonstrates a commitment to respecting privacy rights.
Pillsbury’s Government Law & Strategies team stands ready to assist in navigating the complex regulatory landscape and identifying opportunities to capitalize on the evolving C-UAS market.